Fixin' ta die w'thar boots on!

[Warning... boring political post. 
Come back tomorrow for pretty pictures.]

There's an old cowboy ethic that states that it is always preferable to die with one's boots on.  This concept stems not from any sensitivity to revealing one's tender toes to view... but rather to an ideal of continuing to work (and wear work clothes) up until one's dying moment.  It's a matter of pride and honor.

Admirable sentiments. 

We know a little bit about pride and honor here in the wild west near east.  Or at least I thought we did.

There is a raging debate currently going on (perhaps debate is too urbane a term) regarding the PA policemen and assorted security prisoners who had been holed up in the Jericho Prison choosing to surrender (and being stripped to their underwear in the process) rather than die fighting with their boots (and clothes) on, as they had threatened.

Much as both sides would like to oversimplify these recent events for their own agenda, what transpired was actually quite complex and requires a close examination of many of the 'facts'.

First of all, like the various intifadas that supposedly 'spontaneously erupted', the events at the Jericho prison were carefully orchestrated and deliberately set in motion by the Palestinian leadership.  Likewise, the Israelis didn't wake up last week and decide "Hey, let's go raid the Jericho prison!"

Likewise,  these events didn't unfold suddenly.  They came about over several days of Hamas playing ever-more dangerous games of 'chicken with the Israeli, British and American officials responsible for enforcing the 'status quo' agreement over the security prisoners held in Jericho.

This game of 'chicken' was not unlike what a child plays when trying to find out how far they can push a parent before a punishment will result.  The major difference is that the Palestinians/Hamas are not children.  They and their leadership are grown-ups with legitimate national aspirations, and therefore they cannot reasonably expect the world (and Israel) to allow them to 'act up' whenever they want to abrogate a standing agreement. 

And it is this important point about the standing agreement that many people want to conveniently ignore while discussing the events of this past week in Jericho.

The standing status quo agreement about the prisoners at Jericho was reached after a long stand-off at the Muqata (the real one... not Jemeel's blog).  Basically, the crisis arose when a bunch of the most wanted murderers and terrorists sought by Israel's security services had been granted refuge by the PA leadership inside Arafat's governmental compound.  Among the wanted men were the people responsible for the murder of a sitting Israeli cabinet member. 

This last point may seem irrelevant to some, but here in the wild west near east, there are rules... and one of those rules clearly and unequivocally states that while it may appear that it is open season (with no bag limit) on civilians... elected officials on both sides are strictly out of bounds! 

You can discuss/argue the legitimacy of terrorism as an effective tool against occupation... and you can argue/debate the legitimacy of extra-judicial targeted assassinations to deal with/punish terror.  But not here!  Not Now!  This is not what I'm talking about right this minute. 

What I'm referring to is that all parties in the current/ongoing conflict have had ample time and opportunity to 'off' the elected leaders of the other side... and have not done so!  That tells me that a very powerful agreement is/was in place and has been respected by absolutely everyone. 

Amazing when everyone agrees to just get along, no?

However, on 17 October 2001, all that changed when a Palestinian terrorists assassinated Israeli Tourism Minister Rechavam Ze'evy outside his hotel room in Jerusalem.  That act broke all the rules. 

The situation could have immediately spiraled out of control with both sides picking off the other side's elected officials, but I'm convinced that cooler heads prevailed on ALL sides.  I believe this because any other scenario would have seen Israeli and Palestinian snipers declaring open season on each other's government leaders.

That this didn't happen was an amazing development that few people noted at the time.  But that doesn't mean that the event was swept under the rug either. 

Almost immediately the Israelis found out exactly who was responsible (another indication that information was being exchanged between the Palestinians and Israelis via back channels), and the culprits conveniently ended up among the men who took refuge in the Muqata.  I say conveniently because now both sides knew what the stakes were and instead of the Israelis hunting down and killing the fugitives... Arafat was holding enough chips to negotiate a better deal for them.

The predictable media circus ensued with Israeli tanks and combat troops surrounding the place and various dopey 'human shields' going in and out to 'risk their flesh and blood' to keep the big bad Israelis from harming a hair on anyone's chinny-chin-chin. 

What everyone sort of ignored with a wink and a nod was that the IDF troops had Ramallah and the Muqata hermetically sealed and could easily have stopped any of these 'human shields' from entering or leaving if they so wished.  Instead the Israelis allowed these well-meaning idiots to participate in this sappy street theater for the eager media cameras.

In the end, an agreement was reached between the two sides. 

Basically the agreement stated that the security prisoners would be removed from the Muquata and transferred to the Jericho prison where, in a face saving gesture, they would be watched over by international (US and British) troops instead of suffering the humiliation of being guarded by Israelis.  This last bit is crucially important to what happened this week because it was an acknowledgment of how central a role pride, ego and honor play in such negotiations.

Most of us who get our news from the mainstream media (MSM) willfully ignore the level of unofficial communication and horse-trading that has to go on for such a negotiated compromise to take place... and more importantly, stay in place.  But when you step back and realize that these men went from being hunted animals to enjoying three hots and a cot... some serious negotiations obviously took place.

Unfortunately, with the election of Hamas, and their brash promises to abrogate all standing agreements and understandings concerning the 'Zionist entity', the apple cart was in serious danger of being up-ended. 

Even so, it was reassuring for anyone watching closely to see that Hamas didn't act rashly and break all the taboos at once. Instead they decided to pick a test case where they could suss out the other side's resolve without putting too much 'face' at risk.  They were also wise to select as their test case a target that Israel had inexplicably assumed would be conveniently ignored indefinitely.

You see, due to the stand-off at the Muqata and the resulting rushed agreement, both sides willingly entered into a devil's bargain that denied the suspected terrorists/murderer's their day in court. 

Yes, you heard me right... even though everyone knew beyond a shadow of a doubt that these men were guilty (they had willingly admitted, even bragged about their crimes), they had never been afforded the niceties of a trial to make it all official - like. 

Instead, in a case of true frontier justice, both the Palestinian and Israeli leadership... under the watchful eyes of the international community... agreed to indefinitely incarcerate these men without officially declaring them guilty.  Yes, that's right... the Palestinians and Israelis agreed to violate all accepted norms of law.  Just like that.

This, in my opinion, is why Hamas chose the Jericho prison as the test case to begin unraveling standing PA/Israeli agreements.   Simply put; it was a soft target with little downside if they lost.  They could simply say (as they are now doing) that the prisoners were officially innocent until proven guilty, so they were setting right an old injustice.

Hamas began the game by announcing that they intended to set the security prisoners free.  This by itself would have been an empty threat except that they also made it clear to the British and American prison guards that their safety could no longer be guaranteed. 

In a prudent move, the foreign prison guards made hasty preparations to 'get out of Dodge' before the shootin' started.  But before doing so, they did the responsible thing and announced their withdrawal timetable, thus preventing a power vacuum that would have been dangerous to all sides.

High noon!

Just like clockwork, Israeli troops and PA policemen took up their respective positions inside and outside the prison for the scheduled showdown.  The the cameras were given time to take up optimal positions... and on cue the obligatory exchanges were made ("Come out with your hands up, the place is surrounded."... "You'll never take us alive", etc. etc. etc.). 

I can just see some network lighting director storming out to the middle of the 'set' with his hands on his hips and demanding that one of the combatants raise or lower his weapon a couple of inches because the sun was reflecting off the barrel directly into the camera lens and spoiling the shot!

I don't mean to make light of the situation because in truth it was deadly serious business with lives on both sides at risk throughout the ordeal.  But at the same time, the leaders on both sides were making very calculated decisions based on their understanding and knowledge of their opponents. 

This was a game of deadly serious brinkmanship... and it was also Hamas's opening move in a much larger and more serious geopolitical game.

In the end, the outcome wasn't particularly surprising to anyone.  Both sides had their day in front of the cameras and some important issues were allowed to see the light of day.

First of all, there is no way the PA Police surrendered without an Ok from above.  That this was given gives me some hope for at least one or two cool heads in the Hamas-led government.  They could have easily served up a prison full of martyrs for the eager cameras... and it would have scored them serious sympathy points in the process.  But instead, someone in a position of authority on the Palestinian side acted like a grown up and made a difficult call. 

Another important point:  The world was reminded that technically (and only technically) the prisoners held in Jericho need a 'church weddin' (so to speak) to solemnize their status as official guilty men... something Israel has since promised to do.  Again, it may seem like a small thing, but so much of international law hinges on such little niceties.

Hamas has now tested the murky waters of agreement dissolution and found them a bit chilly.  I think (hope) they may have gotten a message that they have almost as much to lose as the Israelis if they want to start setting aside 'understandings' and 'gentlemen's agreements' willy-nilly.  After all, this part of the world with its egos and 'honor' operates almost entirely on such back-alley understandings and unspoken agreements. 

This isn't to imply that anyone is going to be riding off happily into the sunset anytime soon.  Mistakes were made in this little showdown... big ones... and there will be a high political price to be paid. 

For instance, although anyone with even a passing familiarity with security precautions understands the need to have the re-captured prisoners and PA police stripped down to their skivvies (guns, knives and explosives are just too easily concealed in clothing)... after all nobody was going to risk having a stabbing, shooting or worse take place after the hard part (the negotiated surrender)  was over and done with.  But that doesn't mean the nearly naked prisoners should have been paraded before the world's media cameras either. 

If the Israelis wanted to send the prisoners and captured PA police out of the prison in an organized 'perp walk', they could have easily set up some privacy partitions (like the ones that magically appeared at the hospital when Sharon was wheeled in after his stroke) behind which the detainees could have been changed at gunpoint into prison garb or IDF-issued overalls. 

That was a huge gaff by the Israeli side, and I think the present outcry from the PA media and leadership is not only predictable but perfectly justified. 

Nobody in this part of the world can pretend to be ignorant of how much honor and modesty are inextricably linked.  If the settlers at Amona (the ones who were witnessed acting violently, anyway) had been stripped to their underwear in a search for weapons and then paraded before the waiting news cameras, the religious right (and yours truly with them) would have started a firestorm to make the PA's current tirade look tame!

No, this was a biiiiiiiig mis-step on the part of the IDF. 

But I'm hopeful that if nothing else comes out of this first test case, at least the new Hamas-led PA and the Israeli government will have had the opportunity to look each other over and set in place some new ground rules.  It's going to be a long, hard process... and we'll need some rules in place to keep things from getting out of hand.

As I said, this little psychodrama was just the opening move in a much larger game - a deadly serious game to be sure - but a game none-the-less.  Hamas made a bad opening gambit and lost big.  Their subsequent bluff of having the prisoners and PA police fight to the death went nowhere, and in the end the guys holed up in the prison were allowed to fold... doing away (for the time being) with the need for anyone to die with their boots on.

But winning this round doesn't give anyone bragging rights. Israel made a strategic error in the closing moments of the game, and there will be a price to pay.  Just as they should have been sweeping the whole pot onto their side of the felt... they are now obligated to quietly give something back during the next round of the conflict, wherever or whenever that may be.  Israel knows it and Hamas knows it.

That's how things are done here.  Middle east politics are seldom about what is said in the press conferences... and almost always about what isn't.

This is life here in the wild west near east ... and things are seldom (if ever) what they seem.